What Does A 'Moderate Risk' Mean?

The government’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms. What does that mean?

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) uses a five-point scale, ranging from "Marginal" to "High" Risk, and a Moderate Risk is the second-highest option. This means that there is significant potential for dangerous weather compared to Slight Risk and Enhanced Risk areas. Typically, a Moderate Risk area is issued when a widespread severe storm or tornado outbreak is expected.

Threats to areas in a Moderate Risk typically include:

• The likelihood of tornadoes, often strong and/or long-lasting
• Frequent lightning
• Damaging winds, often in excess of 70 mph
• Large hail in excess of 2 inches

When a Moderate Risk area is issued, it should be taken very seriously. Its presence means that government forecasters are confident enough that widespread storms will develop, and that these storms are capable of causing significant damage or even causing fatalities.

For anyone in a Moderate Risk area, it would be wise to keep an eye on the sky during any activities, and be prepared to take shelter at a moment`s notice. 

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Story Image: Damage such as this is typical of what you might see should a storm hit during a "Moderate Risk" threat. (Photo taken by WeatherBug User Richard Brewer in Yates City, Ill., in June 2014)