Newly Formed Tropical Storm Barry Eyes E. Mexico Landfall

The Atlantic tropical season is ramping up in the final days of June with a newly formed tropical system in the Bay of Campeche. While short-lived, it will drop plenty of rainfall over eastern Mexico.

As of 1 p.m. CDT, Tropical Storm Barry was located near 20.8 N and 96.6 W, or 50 miles ESE of Tuxpan, Mexico, or 130 miles southeast of Tampico, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph, but it remains a weak, disorganized system as it moves to the west-northwest at 12 mph. Its minimum pressure is 1006 mb, or 29.71 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan to Tecolutla. This means that tropical storm conditions, or winds greater than 39 mph, are expected in the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Barry remains in the western Bay of Campeche and will eventually make more of a turn to the northwest later today. As it inches towards eastern Mexico, Barry will move over a favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures and weak winds. While some slight strengthening is expected, there will be limited intensification given its poor structure currently and limited time over water. This would most likely make it a weak tropical storm at landfall.

With a northwesterly track, this system will move inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight. The center will mostly likely come ashore near Cabo Rojo, which is about 300 miles to the south of the U.S./Mexico border. The system will quickly dissipate over the rugged terrain of eastern Mexico on Monday.

The greatest concern from this system will be heavy rainfall. Totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas through Monday. There could also be isolated rainfall totals up to 10 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

The strongest winds are expected to occur to the north of the center along the coast this afternoon through early Monday.

Although the U.S. is not at risk from this tropical system, its development serves as a beacon that it is time to prepare for the hurricane season. Create a hurricane evacuation box now, before the storm, with bottled water, extra cell phone chargers, food and clothing. Scope out multiple different evacuation routes, in case your preferred route is blocked or traffic jammed.
 
The Atlantic hurricane season, which officially started on June 1, has been slowly ramping up, as last week saw the short-lived Tropical Storm Andrea in the central Atlantic. This is about in line with climatology, as June typically has only a couple of named storms.